What Were the Odds for That Colorado State Football Hail Mary Play?

It was a miracle in Fort Collins. Colorado State University hosted the Boise State Broncos for their homecoming game, which came down to one final play.

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With six seconds to go, Freshman quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi chucked a Hail Mary pass on the right side of the end zone.

The ball was tipped around by players on both teams, and tight end Dallin Holker ended up securing not only the football but the game for Colorado State.

The Probability of This Happening

It isn't often that we see huge game-winning hail mary passes succeed like this. The Denver Broncos accomplished a successful Hail Mary pass at the end of regulation during their game against the Washington Commanders this season, but they lost the game because they were not able to convert a two-point conversion.

ESPN says that the probability of a Hail Mary being successful is just 9.7%. I went to Bard, an artificial intelligence engine from Google, and asked it to be a little more specific.

Here Are the Factors I Was Curious About

• Hail Mary success rate to win the game.
• Hail Mary success rate from the 33-yard line.
• How height for the quarterback and wide receiver plays a factor.

Artificial intelligence said that there was a 10% chance of the play being successful, which is actually better than the average by ESPN.

Quick Side Note

I went to the game and had a blast. I feel stupid saying this, but I left the game early because I figured Colorado State was going to lose, and I wanted to dodge traffic.

I jumped in my car and turned on K99, the home of CSU sports, and heard the final play. I was excited, but I will always hate myself for missing this epic moment in Colorado State football history.